Attached is an article by The Hockey Writers providing what I believe to be the most thorough and accurate news piece since the NCAA’s much overdue decision allowing CHL players to later compete in American college hockey. When I first saw the article’s title indicating junior hockey wouldn’t be affected by this decision, I thought I would disagree with its contents. I changed my mind when I read the article however, especially its analysis regarding junior A hockey. I completely agree that the CHL will not see its stars leaving its ranks. If anything, it seems to me this decision will encourage top Canadian players to stay home instead of playing in the United States. Previously, the only route a player could pursue if he thereafter wanted to play in the NCAA was to compete in a junior A (or lower) league. Based upon sheer numbers, in Canada the AJHL and BCHL are the preferred leagues for this route. In the States, it is the USHL and NAHL. My opinion is that the USHL historically has attracted the highest-end players in junior A hockey (see Macklin Celebrini, enough said). Accepting that as true, it makes sense to me that a Canadian kid would stay closer to home rather than traveling to the mid-western U.S. to continue his hockey career.
Sticking with the potentially harsh effects on junior A hockey, many people believe this decision will have devastating consequences for the USHL in particular. I respectfully disagree with this conclusion. While the league in most cases may lose out to the CHL with respect to top Canadian prospects, I believe many U.S.-born high-enders will stay put in the name of being closer to home. The big exception to this is the northeastern United States (most notably the Boston area). The USHL does not have a presence there, and in many cases towns in eastern Ontario and Quebec are closer to that area than any USHL team. If there is a mass exodus of players headed from the U.S. to the CHL (the OHL or QMJHL in particular), I believe this is where it will happen. On that note, the North American Hockey League (NAHL) has done a nice job of creating an East Division to cover this area. While the NAHL is very good hockey and in many seasons sends more players to the NCAA than the USHL, USA Hockey has designated it as a tier II junior A league (the USHL is the only tier I junior A league in the States). As such, for the most part very high-end U.S.-born prospects want to compete in the USHL, and if that option doesn’t exist close to home the CHL may be their preferred choice.
Having said all of that, at the end of the day we’ll have to wait and see what transpires, but I do think this a great thing for the growth of the sport.
https://thehockeywriters.com/new-chl-ncaa-agreement-wont-change-junior-hockey-landscape/